Nifty must break 5815

Nifty must break Oct'12 peak of 5815 for further weakness. On 18th Dec also it took support from this level and jumped back. 1st support at 5840, then 5815.

SAR Hit

Sar is hit again. Market in sell mode. MACD gave sell signal 3 days back. 

Nifty again below 10 ema

Nifty closed below 10 ema, 5 ema. Macd, Stockastics have given sell signal.
BankNifty has not broken yet. It closed above 5 & 10 ema.
In individual stocks Infy, TCS & Bharti continue to fall. Hindalco, Rcom, TataMotor are showing strength. Tatamotor has already given a breakout.
Nifty needs to break 5830-40 range for further weakness.

Fibo Target

Likely targets for this rise are
38.2% =  5805
50%    =  5756
61.8%  = 5707

RPower above 110 has targets of 119,139.

A closing above 110 can take it to 119(100%) & 139 (161.8%).

TataMotors on verge of breakout

A breakout from this range may take it above recent peak of 320.

Hindalco at Resistance Zone

Price at 200Dema.  Upmoves resisted earlier at 124-130. Upmove will be confirmed only above 130.

RCOM Chart

Rcom is above its 200Dema. It has given a closing above long term trendline.
A buy signal with a stoploss at 200Dema.

Likely Targets

Move from 4770 to 5815 = 1045 Points
38.6% of 1045 = 403 +5548 = 5951  (1st Target) (Coincides with Apr'12 High "POINT A")
50.0% of 1045 = 522 + 5548= 6070 (2nd Target) (Coincides with "POINT B")
61.8% of 1045 = 645+ 5548= 6193  (3rd Target) (Coincides with "POINT C")
Point A coincides with 78.6% of fall from 6348 to 4532. So point A is likely to be a major resistance.

Upmove continues

Nifty has crossed 5740 easily. About to cross previous high of 5777. New highs possible soon.

Nifty Jumps

Nifty crossed all landmarks like 5680, 5710, 5725. Nifty gave a jump today and just below 5740. 5730-5760 will give some resistance. MACD has also given buy signal in NIFTY.
Watch: Hindalco, JP Associates, Tisco.

NIfty & BN in buy mode

Dow came above its 200DEma on Friday. On back of the positive global cues Nifty & BN are in positive territory (in buy mode).

SAR triggered

Market in down turn. Went below SAR at 5705. Now at 5682.

5740 - STILL THE HURDLE

Nifty crossed the 5740 mark yesterday, but against a 3% fall in Dow, it could not give enough support. Nifty opened around 5710 in the morning and has been trying to cross the 5740 mark. But it has acted as solid resistance again and again. Maybe after today's consolidation it will attempt to cross this hurdle tomorrow.

Final Hurdle at 5740

Nifty closed above the Trendline. Nearest resistance is now again the 5740 (June'11 peak). SAR for monday is 5664.

Trendline Support

                                           Took support at trendline. If sustains above it, it will soon cross EMA-10 and upper trendline. SAR for tomorrow is at 5657.
Intraday If it reverses back, from higher levels(Opening seems to be above SAR) SAR will be 5657-20=5637.

Technicals

Nifty's support of 5630-45, till yesterday will act as resistance now. It is retracing now from 5620 range.
Nifty SAR for tomorrow 5659.  

I have limited / reduced the technical studies to:
1) 10 D EMA / SMA
2) MACD
3) TRENDLINE

BUY TCS:  MACD CROSSOVER, ABOVE 10 D SMA
BUY INFOSYS : ABOVE 10 D SMA, (ON SUSTAINING ABOVE 2370)

NIFTY BREAKS DOWN

Nifty has finally broken below the range and trading around 5600. Now SAR is at 5684.

Nifty squeezed-Must break this range for direction

Nifty closed above 5d HEMA, 10d EMA

Nifty closed above 5d HEMA, 10d EMA. Because of the sideways movement for last so many days, this close above 5d Hema is important. A buy signal (5684 being protected)

18-10-12 High Low Close 10D EMA 5D EMA 5D HEMA 5D LEMA Nifty 5722 5651 5719 5684 5686 5711 5640 Bank Nifty  11595 11364 11586 11414 11449 11513 11319

Nifty sideways continues

Nifty is still within a range. In the morning Nifty opened above 5D EMA and just slipped below it.

10D EMA 5D EMA 5D HEMA 5D LEMA Nifty 5676 5670 5705 5645
Strength above 5705 on closing basis.

Nifty resisted

Yesterday also Nifty could not sustain above the trendline in Hourly chart. Today morning also after a gap-up opening it slipped below it. Important figures for today:
10D EMA = 5679
5D EMA = 5675
5D HEMA= 5715
5D LEMA= 5650

Currently nifty is at 5666 i.e. below 5D EMA.

Nifty again in Buy Zone

In a flat correction, it is moreover a sideways movement. Nifty has been moving within 50-60 points. A breakout will only confirm a direction. On upper side a close above 5740 may be the decider. Nifty Future Hourly chart today should sustain above the trendline.

Nifty Support & Resistance

Nifty is in sale zone (below 10D EMA & 5D HEMA). It is getting support at 5640-5660 range (near 20D SMA). Further weakness below this range and strenth only above 5705-5720 range.

Nifty in Buy territory

Yesterday Nifty took support at 20D SMA and jumped to positive territory.  Tough days ahead.
Correction from 5815 to 5636 was not that deep. So this bull run is set to show new highs.

Nifty near 20D SMA

The correction is consuming more time. It seems like a flat correction. Today Nifty closed at 5652. Immediate support being 20D SMA at 5633. Next target is at 38% being 5587.

			Rise	0.236%	0.380%	0.500%	0.618%
Nifty	5216	5815	599	5674	5587	5516	5445

Nifty SAR triggered

Nifty SAR at 5690 triggered. Market in sell mode.

Nifty manages to close above 5740

Nifty still managed to close above 5740. Weakness only below 5700-5680 where SAR lies. 

UPDATE: Nifty is already below 5740 in the morning. Day will tell if it holds 5700-5680 or not.

Nifty resisted at 5740

Upmove is intact. But Nifty got resisted and made a high of 5735 and closed at 5703. It could not cross 5740 range. Any upmove from here will confirm the bullissness.
Nifty SAR is now at 5618. On the lower side breaking 5630-40 range will be decider.

Nifty May try to break range

On upside closing above 5670-5700 is crucial. While on downside 5630-5600 is crucial. SAR is also at 5600. On upside hurdle is at 5740.

Nifty in a range

Nifty has not been able to cross 5700 on EOD basis. But still holds 5630-50 range. Weakness below this range. Nifty SAR is at 5570 and BankNifty SAR at 10942.

Nifty at 52 Week High

Nifty closed at 52 Week High at 5691. It climbed past 61.8% retracement (5654) convincingly. Next immediate target to cross will be July'11 High of 5740 and then 5950 area i.e Apr'11 high & 78.6% level.

 

Nifty bounces from the trendline today

A closing above 5630-5650 will give the thrust to achieve new highs.

Fibo Targets (Calculations)/Elliot wave

Current upmove has started from 4th June's Low of  4770.
Wave 1.   4770 to 5348 = 578 points
Wave 2.   5348 to 5032 =  -316 points (Retraces just above 50% of 1)
Wave 3.   5032 to 5448 = 416 points 
Wave 4.   5448 to 5215 =  -233 points (Retraces just above 50% of  3)
Wave 5.   Wave 1 to 3 = 678 points
Wave 3 cannot be shortest. If wave 5 is minimum of Wave 3, then target will be,
        5215 + 416 = 5631 achieved today.
ELSE, if nifty goes above this  level, the moves has to be relebelled. Then Wave 3 continues.
Then current position will be wave iii of 3 (an extended one, most likely). Then likely targets for iii of 3 will be
Wave i X 1.618 i.e 416 X 1.618 = 673 points from 5215 i.e. 5888 and more.      

NIFTY SAR AT 5348

NIFTY SAR is at 5348. Bank NIFTY SAR is at 10100. Last time Bank was around 10500-600, with Nifty at this level. This shows the weakness in banks.

NIFTY SAR at 5329

Nifty SAR for today is 5329. Bank Nifty is still hesitant.

BankNifty below its SAR

Bank Nifty has opened below its SAR (10070). Bank is not showing any strength.

NIFTY SAR at 5305

NIFTY has crossed 10,20,50d EMA convincingly. NIFTY SAR now stands at 5305, so hold it till it remains above the SAR. Bank Nifty closed just below its 20D EMA.

Bank Nifty Chart

Bank Nifty has bounced from the trendline in todays opening trade and has given a gap-up opening. A clear buy signal.

Nifty above SAR in buy mode

Nifty has opened gap up above the SAR and is in buy mode.

Nifty approaching 5200

Nifty could not sustain 5250 yesterday. Watch out for Downside support at 5190-5200, and upside resistance at 5260-5300.

Nifty Breaks 50D SMA

Nifty's attempt to recover did not sustain yesterday. It finally broke 50D SMA and closed below it. Now 5200 is the level to watch. India's rating downgrade news may be a trigger now.
Fibo Targets:
From     To                50%          61.8%
5032     5448            5240          5191

Nifty is currently at 50% retracement.

Nifty Closes at 50D SMA

Nifty closed just at 50D SMA. Major supports are at 5250 and then 5200. Both 200D EMA & SMA falls in this range. Below 5200, 4800 is visible. On upside resistance starts at 5300, and then 5350.
Two drops of news to watch: 1) Panel wants GAAR to be extended by 3 yrs. 2) Diminishing hopes for ratecut, diminishing growth rate leading to rating downgrade.

Nifty holds 50D SMA

Yesterday Nifty bounced from 50D SMA. Now the range to watch will be 5250-5200 on lower side and 5350 on higher side.

Nifty trailing below its SAR

Without participation of BankNifty, Nifty could not hold itself above 5400 for long and crossed its SAR and is trailing near its 20D SMA. Holding 5300 will be crucial. BankNifty has gone down too much.

SAR FOR NIFTY AT 5366

Nifty has broken the 5400 level in the morning trade and it is to be seen if it holds SAR at 5366 or not. Bank Nifty has not participated in this rally (courtesy NPA's of SBI) and is already below its SAR.

Nifty crosses 5400

After moving in a range Nifty finally crossed 5400 and closed at 5420. Bank nifty is still struggling to break the range. Without its support jumps are not expected.

Nifty facing resistance

Nifty is facing resistance at 5400 (Oct'11 high & sloping trendline from Oct'10). It is still above SAR, whereas BankNifty went below its SAR on friday and gave a close below it.

Hurdles ahead

Nifty is attempting next hurdle at 5400.

Nifty advances

Yesterday, Nifty gave the much awaited breakout and closed above the 5350-5360 range at 5380. Uptrend is intact till nifty maintains above the trendline. 

Immediate resistance will be Oct'11 high of 5400. This target looks easily achieved on the back of lower than expected inflation data which gives rise to rate cut speculations.

Nifty near 5348 again

Yesterday Nifty closed near 5348 again. Bank nifty closed just below its SAR (10419). Bank nifty has not broken the trendline till now. Banknifty is trying to go above SAR. If nifty maintains above 5350-5360 for 2-3 hours, it will be a breakout on upper side.
Global cues negative. Nifty SAR for today at 5289.

Bank Nifty - Make or Break point

Bank Nifty has broken the SAR at 10d EMA yesterday. It may cross the trendlines on either side in the coming days. Whereas Nifty has not broken the SAR or trendline yet.

Nifty retracing

Nifty after mildly crossing the 5348 levels has retraced and hovering at 5310 levels. Bank nifty has broken the SAR on the back of SBI's expected results .

Nifty hovering around 5348

Nifty has not crossed its recent high of 5348 convincingly. This morning also it is hovering around the mark and facing resistance here.

Nifty holds

Nifty has moved way above 10D,20D & 50D Ema. It is in positive territory till it holds 5210 spot. Next hurdle will be recent high of 5348.

NIFTY & BankNifty above SAR

Nifty & Bank Nifty have jumped to positive territory and are again in BUY mode.

SAR broken

Nifty has gone below the SAR (10 day EMA) at 5190 and trading at 5175 now. It is in sell mode now. BankNifty has also gone way below its SAR at 10360 and it trading at 10260 now.

Nifty and BankNifty Above the SAR

Both the indices are in buy mode today. Both are currently trading above the SAR.

20th June 2012

We are entering the last leg of the current upswing. Today market is likely to move upwards and remain above the SAR's for a day or two. The next SAR break on the downside will be severe. It may start anytime on 22nd June or 25th June.

NIFTY SAR

Nifty closed well below at 5340. SAR for today NIFTY 5401 and Bank Nifty at 10486. It is taking some time to cross the recent low at 5280. Below that downside confirms.

NIFTY SAR

Nifty yesterday opened up and again moved below SAR. Again in sell mode.
NIFTY SAR at 5414 and BANK NIFTY AT 10529.

NIFTY SAR for 29th Feb

Nifty today attempted to reverse back but closed below 20D SMA and SAR.  SAR  for NIFTY is now at 5421 and for Bank Nifty at 10555. Tomorrow's open will be crucial.

Fibo Targets for Nifty

Market continues in sell mode.

Nifty today broke the 20DSMA, cluster points between 5300-5400 and closed at 5281. Now we can calculate the fibo levels for possible target of NIFTY in days to come.

	From	To	Fall/Rise	0.236%	0.380%	0.500%	0.618%	0.786%
NIFTY	4531	5628	1097	5369	5211	5080	4950	4766

So the next target is 5211. 5170-5220 is strong support zone. 200 D SMA is at 5171. Below this further weakness continues.
NIFTY spot SAR for 28th Feb is at 5430 & Bank Nifty at 10571.

NIFTY SAR

Friday’s figures are as below:

	High	Low	Close	EMA 10 (SAR)	SMA 20
Nifty (Spot)	5521	5405	5429	5464	5382
Bank Nifty	10759	10435	10506	10674	10415

Both the indexes decisively went below SAR, and took support at 20 DSMA. Last cluster zone     at 5327-5424 is offering support here. Nifty should decisively brake this support zone to show further weakness.  

NIFTY SAR

NIFTY spot SAR is at 5470 & Bank Nifty at 10700 again. Yesterday market breached the SAR and reversed again. Today BN is already below SAR.

SAR for 23'rd Feb 2012

SAR for the day Nifty Spot 5460, Bank Nifty 10700.

SAR for today Nifty (Spot) 5460, Bank Nifty 10700.

Jupiter's upcoming aspect to Uranus

The aspect is due on 18th Jan. Market is getting its strength from the nearness of the upcoming aspect. Market is not ready to fall. The strength is likely to continue, and show a boost on 18th Jan. Once the aspect passes away, the strength will start receding. Moreover Mars retrogates from 23rd Jan and Saturn from 07th Feb. This will add more of negativity.

Crucial Juncture

Nifty below 4800 will show weakness. And if sustains and crosses 4900, it will show further strength.

Crossed 4800 mark

After 5 days of consolidation Nifty finally broke out of the 4800 range and closed strong at 4850. Trigger was Moody's upgradation of India to Investment grade. This has negated the possible downmove as envisaged yesterday.

Next down leg starts

Nifty in a tight spot. Not able to cross the 4780-4817 range. It closed below 21-Dema, 5D-Hema. Daily stockastics in the OB range. Consistent 5th day of its failure to cross the 4800 range. All this points to a downfall.

Nifty trading below 5 EMA

Nifty has moved below 5D ema, and is about to go below 5D Lema (4690).

Nifty sustaining its progress. It is ruling above Pivot, 5D HEma, 21D Ema.

Nifty above day's open and yesterday's high.

03/01/2012

Nifty has given a gap up open, and is strait forward above 5D Hema. Now it is above 21D ema.